At 21:00 on September 10, the second debate of the 2024 U.S. general election was held as scheduled.
This debate is the first head-on confrontation between U.S. Vice President Harris and Republican presidential candidate Trump after Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate. Judging from the performance of both sides, Harris’s debate strategy seems to be aimed at enraging Trump, and Trump’s slightly out-of-control performance also falls right into the trap.
A CNN anchor commented that Harris’s supporters must be very happy tonight because Harris has “hit Trump’s soft spot many times,” making Trump “lose his composure,” so that Trump has to “throw out more to argue.”
After the debate, the famous American female singer Taylor Swift announced on social media that she supports Harris’s run for president of the United States.
The market reaction is generally not volatile. During and after the debate, U.S. stock index futures fell. The S&P index futures fell by 0.5%, the Nasdaq 100 index futures fell by 0.65%, and the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.23%.
Not much substantive discussion on policies
Wall Street generally believes that this debate did not reveal more substantive details.
Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, said:
“Neither side revealed specific details. I think those who support Trump will believe he won the debate, while those loyal to the Democratic Party will think she won the debate.”
SHIER LEE LIM, chief foreign exchange and macro strategist for Asia Pacific at CONVERA, commented:
“So far, the debate between Harris and Trump does not seem to have had a major impact on the market, which is in line with the relatively low volatility expectations before the event. Having said that, this debate could still be an important catalyst for changing election probabilities.”
“The election results may have a meaningful impact on fiscal policy and financial markets. It is reported that Republicans are considering using tariffs to offset tax cuts, while Democrats may seek to increase corporate taxes and wealth taxes to fund increased spending.”
The weakening of the US dollar may indicate that Harris performed better.
Some observers also said that Harris’s performance was better than expected. If investors think this will increase her chance of entering the White House, it may continue to affect the prices of some assets in the coming days.
Eric Beyrich, portfolio manager for Sound Income Strategies, said:
“They both didn’t put forward strong economic viewpoints, but overall, Harris performed better than Trump.”
“The market really doesn’t want sharp statements. What they want is clarity.”
SONU VARGHESE, global macro strategist at Carson Group, said:
“I think this debate won’t change many people’s minds because voters are still deeply divided. The only indication is that Harris has taken the lead in the prediction market, but the odds of victory for both sides are still very close.”
“There wasn’t much substantive discussion on policies. Neither candidate advocated for economic policies that are very different from the current ones.”
“We will find that many economic policies implemented next year will depend on the composition of the Senate and the House of Representatives, and negotiations related to extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (signed into law by former president Trump in 2017).”
Pay attention to subsequent employment data and election campaigns.
Given that this debate has not had a major impact, there is a view that future employment data and remarks related to election campaigns will determine the final outcome of the general election.
VASU Menon, managing director of investment strategy at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) in Singapore, said:
“The debate today will not have a major impact and there is no clear winner. Data in the coming weeks, especially economic performance as indicated by employment data, and their respective remarks during the election campaigns before November 5 will determine the final outcome.”
Some investors said that although the presidential election is largely the focus of investors’ attention, politicians are also beginning to worry that it has combined with more immediate market catalysts, including concerns about the weakness of the US economy and uncertainties about the extent of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Reproduction Notes：InvestFancy » Trump-Harris Debate Ends, Dollar Index Weakens